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1×2 Accurate Football Tips

1×2 Accurate Football Tips


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Day: Monday    Date: 07.02.2022

League: ROMANIA Liga 1
Match: FC Botosani – Din. Bucuresti
Tip: Over 1.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: ?:?

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Converting 1×2 accurate football tips to Implied Probabilities

As we mentioned above, it’s important to know how to convert 1×2 accurate football tips to implied probabilities if you’re going to find value. We could walk you through a big maths lesson, but we’re going to do you one better. We’ve put together a completely free tool for converting 1×2 accurate football tips into implied probabilities. All you have to do is input the odds fixed match and click the “convert” button, and it will spit out the percentage for you.

Another perk of the converter is that it will allow you to convert probabilities back into 1×2 accurate football tips. You can use this to calculate the percent chance that you think a team will win a game, and then convert that into the money line. This money line will be the amount you should get paid if things are fair. If you find a line that pays better than this, you’ve found value.

For example, based on your calculations, let’s say you think a team is 45% likely to win a game. If you put that into the converter, it tells you that the money line odds should be +122. That means if you see a line that’s, say, +130, you’re getting value and should probably make that bet.

Calculating Predicted Actual Probabilities

So now you understand that you need to find value, and that the two key figures you need are the implied probability (which you can get from the money line at the sports book) and the predicted actual probability (which you have to develop yourself). Thanks to our calculator, you know how to do the first, but we want to cover the second number now.

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Converting your 1×2 accurate football tips on a game or a bet into numbers can be a challenge. There are a few ways that you can approach this. The first is the less mathematical way, which may be a good fit for some of you. What you can do is assess the game, take everything that you normally do to predict a winner into 1×2 accurate football tips, and instead of trying to figure out a final score prediction tips 1×2 or an outcome of just that game, look at the two teams as if they were playing a series.

Imagine that the two teams were to play 10 games. How many would each team win? Do you think they would win 6 of 10? Then your predicted actual probability is 60%. Think they’re going to win 4 or 5? Well, split the difference at 4.5, and you have a predicted implied probability of 45%.

The other approach you can take to this is creating a formula that calculates everything for you. You come up with a list of 1×2 accurate football tips you think will affect the outcome of the game, and then you apply numerical values and weights to each. Confused? That’s ok.

Example

Let’s look at an insanely oversimplified example that will show you what we mean.

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For example you are betting on a football games. Suppose that you think it’s important how fast the team is, how deep their bench is, and how smart their coach is. You think that team speed is the most important, and then bench depth is slightly less important, and then coaching staff is slightly less important than that. You now have to assign how important you think each is as a percentage out of 100. Let’s say you come up with this.

Speed: 50%

Bench: 30%

Coaching: 20%

Let’s also say that you use these three criteria to rank each team on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the best.

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Team A

Speed: 7

Bench: 4

Coaching: 8

Team B

Speed: 4

Bench: 5

Coaching: 7

Now what you need to do is use these variables to create a formula that you can plug your values into. It would look something like this.

Now look at your scores for each team.

Team A

(.5 * 7) + (.3 * 4) + (.2 * 8) =

3.5 + 1.2 + 1.6 = 6.3

Team B

(.5 * 4) + (.3 * 5) + (.2 * 7) =

2 + 1.5 + 1.4 = 4.9

Now what you need to do is figure out what percentage of the possible points each score is. To do that, you total up the score by adding 6.3 and 4.9, which gives you 11.2. Now you figure out what percentage of the total each score is.

Team A

6.3/11.2 = .5625 = 56.25% Team B 4.9/11.2 = .4375 = 43.75%

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Congratulations; you just figured out your predicted actual probabilities. Take these and convert them into 1×2 accurate football tips, and you can now see if there is value on either side of the bet. Yes, this was an oversimplified example, but the premise is the same. Come up with your criteria, assign weights to each based on how important you think they are, and then plug in your numbers, and you’ll find what you think the actual probability is.

This also works with other sports where there are more than two teams/people competing. The only difference in the computations is that when you add up the total scores, you will add up the scores of everyone competing. Then you will divide that total by each score, and you’ll get your probability.

If you’re already thinking that those percentages are going to be smaller, you’re right. This is why you get paid out much better when you pick an individual like a NASCAR driver or golfer to win a competition.

How to detect fixed match

It’s also important to note that if you convert all the 1×2 accurate football tips in a game together, it’s going to add up to over 100%. Wait, what? When you do this calculation, what you’re seeing is the sports book juice. To collect their money, they are paying bets out slightly more likely than what they actually think the probability is.

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Remember, the more likely a bet is to happen, the less they will pay out on it. So, if they take every 1×2 accurate football tips and pay it out as if it’s a tiny bit more likely than expected, they’re going to be paying out a tiny bit less than they should every game, as long as they can get the correct money on each side. Therefore, this is how they make their money.

If you ever need to figure out the true implied probability without the sports book juice, calculate the percentages, and then figure them as a percentage of the total percentages paid out. For most people, though, this will be overkill and not necessary.

Author: Denise Price