Combo Fixed Sure Odds
Combo Fixed Sure Odds
Sure Matches Today
Day: Friday Date: 18.02.2022
League: AUSTRIA 2. Liga
Match: BW Linz – Vorwarts Steyr
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50 Result: ?:?
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What are the majority betting on?
Knowing where the majority of the Combo fixed sure odds public are putting their money forms the basis for using the contrarian Combo fixed sure odds strategy. Also known as fading the public, this is a popular and simple strategy that can be used for Combo fixed sure odds. Although it’s somewhat limited, the logic behind it is solid enough.
If you’ve read our article on football betting sites fixed matches facts, myths and theories, you’ll know that most people who bet on football ticket fixed matches odds lose. That’s one of the facts included in the article. It’s also the foundation for the contrarian Combo fixed sure odds strategy. In very simple terms, the idea is that you bet against what the majority are doing. Because if they’re losing more often than not, it must make sense to do the opposite.
Although this simple strategy can work in some situations, it’s not as effective as it used to be. The bookmakers and betting sites football matches 1×2 all set their big odds sure win betting matches and lines very efficiently these days, so it’s hard to find value just by going against the public. You need to be a little smarter than that. You need to look for specific opportunities where the weight of money from the Combo fixed sure odds public has moved the odds fixed matches and lines so far in one direction that it’s created value for fixed matches 1×2 betting the other way.
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Where is Combo fixed sure odds going?
In our opinion, it’s far more effective to follow the smart money than it is to simply go against the public. Of course, these two things will often be one and the same. As where the smart money goes is regularly the opposite to where the majority of the money goes.
It’s a little harder to figure out where the smart money is going though. Movements in the fixed matches free odds and lines caused by the weight of public money are generally quite easy to spot. Movements caused by smart money are not always so obvious though. However, there are some specific trends to look out for that do tend to indicate what the smart bettors are doing. We cover those later in this article.
We firmly believe that following fix ht-ft matches betting trends can be useful for Combo fixed sure odds As with situational trends, though, they shouldn’t be blindly followed in isolation of other factors. They’re most useful when used to support (or oppose) judgements and assessments that you make based on other factors.
Understanding the Combo fixed sure odds
So we’ve talked about two specific types of trend and how they can help you to make your halftime/fulltime fixed football betting decisions. We’re now going to discuss something else you need to understand; how to assess the value of a trend or pattern.
Before we continue, please know that there’s no precise calculation for measuring the value of trends and patterns. This is NOT an exact science. You can’t definitively state exactly how much value a specific trend has, or even if it has any value at all. All you can do is apply your own judgment and try to make as accurate an assessment as possible.
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In order to do that, you need to know the three main factors that contribute to the value of a trend. Refer to our list below!
- History & Sample Size
- Validity vs Anomaly
History & Sample Size
There are two initial questions you need to answer when assessing the value of a trend. How long has it been in effect? And how much relevant data is applicable? This will give you an instant idea of whether it can actually tell you anything at all. If it’s been continuously in effect for years, and there are lots of data points to support it, then there’s a good chance it has some merit.
Consider bye week trends for example, which we explain more about later. The bye week was first introduced back in 1990, and every team has had one bye week in each regular season since then. That gives us over 25 seasons to look at, with several relevant games in each season. Any trend based on how teams perform before and after bye weeks should therefore be reasonably useful. There’s a long history to look at, and plenty of data points.
Now suppose you’re looking at a trend based on how a particular coach does when his team are road favorites. The guy has only been coaching his current team for 2 seasons, and they’ve only been road favorites on eight occasions. Even if he’d won or lost them all, there’s not enough data there for a trend to have any value.
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Validity vs Anomaly
This is harder to judge, but it’s something you need to at least consider. Some trends exist for absolutely no reason at all, and as such they don’t really have any value. There needs to be some kind of valid reason for a trend to exist, otherwise it’s just a bunch of meaningless data.
Statistical anomalies are reasonably common in Combo fixed sure odds. They’re basically outliers from the norm that happen for no logical reason. This means they can’t really be useful for judging what might happen in the future.
Let’s compare two trends here to illustrate the point. Imagine there’s a team that has lost the last nine times they’ve played in a nationally televised game. That’s a trend worth thinking about, because there could be a valid reason for it. Perhaps the team doesn’t respond well to the added pressure of playing on national TV.
A trend can be a simple statistical oddity that tells us nothing at all.
Now imagine there’s a team that has lost the last nine times they’ve played in games televised by NBC, but they’ve done just fine in games in televised by ESPN. Does this tell us anything? Is there any logical reason why their performances would change based on the network televising their games? Of course not. This type of trend is better off ignored.
Of course, you probably wouldn’t look at the television network data anyway, precisely because it’s not relevant. Nonetheless, the example serves to illustrate our point. Some so-called trends are simply coincidences and nothing more than that.
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Relevancy of Combo fixed sure odds
Relevancy is closely linked to validity in some respects. Because for a trend to be valid in the first place, it has to be based on data that’s actually relevant. As we just explained, some data isn’t relevant at all. But when we consider relevancy as a measure of value by itself, we’re talking specifically about the period of time for which data remains relevant.
The most useful trends are those which remain relevant over long periods of time.
Remember how we spoke earlier about trends based on bye week data? That data has remained relevant over many years, because the effects of playing before or after a bye week have always remained constant to some extent.
Now imagine a trend based on a team’s performances against a specific opponent over the last 20 years.
Think about this. A team is just about to play an opponent that they’ve lost to 90% of the time over the last 20 years. That’s a clear trend. It scores well in terms of history and sample size. And it scores well in terms of validity too, because there are genuine reasons why some teams perform especially well or especially poor against specific teams. So you might assume it’s sensible to back against this team based on their poor record against their opponents.