VIP Safe fixed Matches
VIP Safe fixed Matches
Accurate ticket 100% sure fixed betting matches
Day: Saturday Date: 03.09.2022
League: FINLAND Ykkonen
Match: Jaro – PIF Pargas
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50 Result: ?:?
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Betting 100% sure fixed odds matches
There is an urban legend of mathematical modelling of VIP SAFE FIXED MATCHES. It is the legend of the mathematical genius, the Einstein of gambling, who has worked out the formula for beating the bookmakers and winning money. If only, the legend goes, you can find the tips that this person can provide, the source of the magic equation, you can become rich beyond your wildest dreams. A simple way to find VIP SAFE FIXED MATCHES.
In one section of the book, I did manage to beat the bookies. But it wasn’t because I found a magical formula that predicts who will win soccer matches fixed betting.
The way I did it was much simpler. I looked at the odds and found a very small but significant bias in how they were set. Bookmakers and bettors hadn’t paid enough attention to predicting the draw in soccer.
Maybe it is because of the popularity of the Fixed matches soccer rules. Maybe it is because bettors don’t like betting on a draw fixed matches. But, whatever the explanation, it turned out that draws in the Premier League were not properly priced.
Draw fixed matches betting tip
Below is a plot of the real frequency of draws in four seasons of the Premier League (2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15) and the prediction of draws implied by the bookmaker’s odds.
This figure is created by taking the VIP SAFE FIXED MATCHES provided by four leading bookmakers (including FixedMatch.Bet), converting odds to implied probabilities and then looking at the difference between the probability of a home win and an away win.
When matches are skewed so there is a strong a favourite (i.e. the probability of one team or the other winning is larger than the other) then draws are over-priced (circles below red line).
Want it made simpler? If two teams are about as good as each other then the draw could be a VIP SAFE FIXED MATCHES if you opt for our paid matches. If one team is much stronger than the other, don’t bet on the draw (betting on the favourite is normally the smartest move in this case).
Testing out the theory of under-priced draws
That was what I found by plotting the odds. I then took that observation and made some money from it. Below are profits for this model for the 2015/16 season.
I tripled my money over the season. Well, actually I didn’t bet throughout the season. But I had doubled my money by Christmas.
Soccermatics came out in May 2016, just as the Premier League was coming to a close. I monitored how it went for my model the season after. Here is the result.
Multi-bets fixed matches ticket big odds
Not so good. There was a small profit to be made in the first few weeks, but then it flatlined for the rest of the season. Not losing money is a small achievement in itself. Where the odds are in the bookmaker’s favour, but obviously making money is the objective for most bettors.
Lessons learn from VIP SAFE FIXED MATCHES
There are four lessons to be learnt from my model.
Firstly, we’ve helped hundreds of people make money from our VIP SAFE FIXED MATCHES. Although I did write down a single equation that I then used to decide my bets (it is footnote 17 for chapter 12 in the book if you don’t want to read the rest of it) this equation came from an analysis of the odds.
The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else. It came from a small error in how the odds were being set.
Secondly, I wasn’t just lucky. The original model was consistent with the previous four years of bookmaker’s odds. I then made a prediction and applied it to the next year and it continued to work.
There is a lot of randomness in betting and it is possible to win for quite a long period of time with luck alone. But this was a long-term trend that was profitable.
Thirdly, nothing lasts forever. In moments of self-aggrandising I like to think that my book led to a market correction. Maybe the traders at FixedMatch.Bet and other bookmakers read my book and thought “we’ve been pricing draws wrong. See those odds for Liverpool at home against Manchester United at the weekend….move the draw odds up by 0.1.” That’s all it takes and my small margin disappears.
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This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points (this is also something I look at in the book). There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone.
My fourth and final conclusion is: I am a total idiot. I spent three months developing a betting model. I found a way to win. But instead of placing all my free capital on the model, I published a book with the secret in it, only to see the profits disappear.
Yes, I got paid for writing the book. Yes, I have enjoyed talking about soccer fixed matches and engaging in the analytics community, but the money would have been nice too.
There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches 1×2 winning tips. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case. If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
Wisdom of the crowd tells us that the fixed matches 1×2 betting market can be hard to beat, but sometimes it makes a few small mistakes. It is these you have to look for.
In part two of this article I will see if I can find one of those cracks using a combination of an expected goals model and potential biases in recent odds.
Understanding basic bet types is vital for any punter to maximise their opportunity of making a profit. This article explains three basic bet types offered by FixedMatch.Bet; 1X2. Handicap fixed matches betting and Totals. Continue reading to learn more about the different basic bet types.
Genuine sources fixed matches Types: 1X2
1X2 betting fixed matches ticket tips is one of the most common forms of betting and is the simplest way for a bettor to understand the cost of a bet. We can use a hypothetical Champions League game between Borussia Dortmund and Napoli to explain how 1X2 betting winning tips today works.
If you staked £10 on Borussia Dortmund to win at odds of 4.250, you would win £42.50 – although that would include your initial £10 stake. Therefore your profit would be £32.50. You would win nothing if the result ended in a defeat or draw for Borussia Dortmund. You could also bet for PSG Football Fixed Matches to earn money through guaranteed results.
A £10 bet on a draw would have returned £37.90 (£27.90 profit and your £10 stake); while the same bet on Napoli to win would see you pocket £19.17 (£9.17 profit).
Once you are familiar with 1X2 betting winning tips today, the next step is to understand how the value in Fixed matches soccer rules varies across bookmakers, thus impacting your potential winnings.
Basic Bet Types: Handicap fixed matches
Betting on the handicap fixed matches is valuable when one team is heavily favoured over their opponents. To counter the perceived bias in ability, bookmakers offer a handicap to level the playing field.
The handicap is factored into the final score to determine the game€’s outcome for the purpose of the bet (which might be different from the actual result).
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For example, the handicap for the hypothetical example above might be (+0.5, 2.020) for Borussia Dortmund and (-0.5, 1.917) for Napoli.
If the result was 1-0 to Napoli, bets on Napoli would win as the 0.5 handicap is not enough to change the outcome. This is often called €covering the handicap
If the result was a 1-1 draw, however, bets on Borussia Dortmund would win. As the 0.5 handicap added to their score is enough to tip the match in their favour.
The handicap can also differ by appearing as a split, such as +0.5 & +1 or -0.5 & -1. This takes your stake and effectively places two handicap bets fixed matches -€ one at each option. Therefore you can win both bets, just one, or lose both.
Advanced bettors will understand the relationship between 1X2 fixed matches tips and handicap betting fixed matches and how to decide which option offers better value.
Basic Bet Types: Totals
Totals bets are another basic bet type, and a popular alternative to 1X2 handicap betting fixed matches. The focus is not on finding the winner of a particular event. But predicting the outcome of game variables (e.g. total goals/runs/points or any other easily quantifiable variable).
Bookmakers offer bettors the option of whether the total goals/points. They will be either OVER or UNDER their assessment of the game.
If you bet £10 on the game to have over 2.5 goals and the result was 2-1 (a total of three goals) you would make a return of £20.80 (£10.80 profit). While you would have won nothing had you bet on the goals total to be under 2.5.